"The need for something is inversely proportional to its availability."
What Is Wade's Law?
Wade's Law of Need is the idea that the more urgently you need something, the less likely it is to be available. It’s a familiar pain point in IT—and once you see it, you start noticing it everywhere.
The law came out of years in operations and site reliability work, where you develop a sixth sense for when things will go wrong. The law has been summed up in countless moments like:
- Backups: “If you don’t have a backup, you’re going to need one. If you do have backups, you probably won’t need them.”
- Upgrade rollbacks: “If you don’t have a backout plan, the upgrade is all but guaranteed to fail. If you do have a plan, odds are you’ll sail through.”
You could call it a form of Murphy’s Law, but more narrowly focused on preparation and availability. What started as IT dark humor has become a surprisingly useful mental model.
The Core Idea
Wade's Law of Need: The perceived need (N) for a resource is inversely proportional to its availability (A):
where (k) is a constant for context.
It's not just physical things like hardware. It applies to:
- Credentials
- Institutional knowledge
- Documentation
- Budget buffers
- Vendor contacts
The lower the availability, the greater the need when things go sideways.
Examples in the Wild
In Tech:
- Disaster Recovery: The DR plan seems unimportant—until your system melts down and you need it yesterday.
- Admin Access: You’ll never need those emergency root credentials—until SSO goes down.
- Team Knowledge: You don’t need documentation—until the only person who understands the system is on vacation.
Outside Tech:
- Contracts: That vendor agreement you forgot to renew? You’ll need it right after the deal hinges on it.
- Compliance: That outdated policy no one reviewed? It becomes crucial the moment you're audited.
- Leadership: You don’t need a Plan B—until Plan A runs into legal, supply chain, or political roadblocks.
What to Do About It
Wade’s Law isn’t just a joke; it’s a design principle. You can’t prevent every problem, but you can:
- Build redundancy and expect it to feel unnecessary—until it’s not.
- Treat documentation as insurance against tribal knowledge loss.
- Make sure contingency planning is baked into major projects.
Preparation won’t always feel rewarding in the moment. That’s the point. You're lowering the likelihood of needing what you prepared.
Final Thoughts
Wade’s Law of Need started as a joke shared with coworkers. But the more you work across different teams and domains, the more you realize it applies everywhere. Scarcity and urgency go hand in hand—especially when you’ve failed to plan ahead.
If you want to avoid needing something, make sure it’s already there.
Because if it’s not—you’ll definitely need it.
About the Author
I'm Bryce Wade, a cloud engineer with deep roots in Linux, automation, and IT operations. I’ve spent over three decades watching Wade’s Law of Need play out in real time. With a mix of humility and just enough hubris, I figured it was time to share this law more broadly. If it helps you avoid a crisis, then it's done its job.