Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer another calendar event - it’s now a major curveball that reshapes the crypto economy (and parts of the global economy) every four years.
With the Bitcoin halving 2024 now behind us (it occurred in April), the buzz has made way for a closer look at what’s unfolding next. Whether you’re tracking investment options, keeping an eye on Bitcoin mining rewards, or simply curious about how the halving cycle impacts price movement - this is a good time to step back and look at the bigger picture.
I’m assuming you already know what Bitcoin is - check our basic explainer in case you don’t. In this post, I’ll discuss the Bitcoin halving is, why it exists, and how it has influenced the market so far. I’ll revisit past BTC halving events and explore what’s shaping expectations for the next BTC halving in 2028.
Key Takeaways
Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC) are decentralized digital assets that operate without central banks and rely on blockchain technology for security and transparency.
With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin promotes scarcity and long-term value.
Four bitcoin halving cycles are already completed - occurring after every four years.
The next BTC halving is expected in 2028.
First, the basics - What is Bitcoin Halving?
Within the Bitcoin blockchain software, new bitcoins enter circulation as block rewards. These are earned by individuals known as miners through a process called Bitcoin mining. BTC miners use high-powered, expensive hardware to solve complex problems and validate transactions.
During each BTC halving event, the total number of bitcoins earned for processing and verifying blocks (aka crypto mining) is reduced by half. This slows down the rate at which new bitcoins are created and introduced into the network.
From the beginning, Bitcoin was structured to become increasingly scarce over time, helping limit inflation. With a fixed cap of 21 million bitcoins - and over 19.86 million already mined - this scarcity is often compared to that of gold, earning Bitcoin the nickname “digital gold.”
Looking back, past BTC halving events have been followed by strong price rallies. That said, each cycle plays out differently. Market sentiment, macroeconomic shifts, and adoption trends all shape how Bitcoin behaves after each halving.
But before we explore the impact and patterns, let’s first look at how the Bitcoin halving cycle actually works.
How Does Bitcoin Halving Cycle Work?
Again, a bitcoin halving cycle controls how new bitcoins are created and helps manage the currency’s supply over time. Bitcoin runs on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) system, where BTC miners compete to solve complex cryptographic puzzles and verify transactions. When a miner successfully adds a new block of transactions to the blockchain, they earn newly minted bitcoins as a block reward.
When Bitcoin launched in 2009, BTC miners received 50 bitcoins for every block mined. Today, after four BTC halving events, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC per block. This process will continue until all 21 million BTC are in circulation, which might happen around the year 2140 - long after we’re gone!
Each BTC halving event is designed to slow down the rate of bitcoin creation. This means fewer coins are produced, making new supply even tighter. This matters to traders because with fewer bitcoins in circulation, growing demand can influence price movement, often pushing it upward.
Is Bitcoin Halving Necessary?
Bitcoin halving is built into its code to limit supply and control inflation. While the creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, never gave a clear reason, many believe it's meant to increase scarcity, encourage early adoption, and mimic gold’s deflationary nature - unlike fiat currencies that can be endlessly printed.
There are also several reasons why the four-year timeframe may have been chosen:
Gradual inflation reduction: The four-year halving cycle slowly decreases Bitcoin’s issuance rate, reinforcing its scarcity similar to gold.
Predictable monetary policy: Scheduled halvings provide predictability, helping BTC miners and investors plan ahead.
Economic cycle alignment: The four-year timeframe may reflect traditional economic or financial cycles.
Balanced incentives: The timeline helps balance miner rewards with long-term network sustainability and security.
Impact of the BTC Halving Events
Now, let’s discuss the impact of each crypto halving event based on prices and mining rewards:
Each Bitcoin halving often reshapes the crypto market. A key metric to understand its influence is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, that compares the total existing supply of Bitcoin to the annual amount mined. A higher S2F ratio indicates greater scarcity - and the next BTC halving in 2028 and further will make the asset more valuable than gold.
Reflecting on Bitcoin’s historical performance post-halving unveils a pattern of exponential growth. For example, a report by GlassNode in VanEck’s post states that Bitcoin’s most explosive gains are typically recorded after the halving.
November 2012 - First BTC Halving
BTC miners’ block reward went from 50 BTC to 25 BTC during the first halving. Back in 2012, Bitcoin was still a niche project, known mainly to cryptographers and early tech adopters.
The network’s infrastructure was basic, and the market lacked regulation and liquidity. While it's hard to isolate the price rise solely due to the halving, this event marked Bitcoin's first major test of its programmed supply reduction. Apart from halving and the concept of crypto scarcity, many other market factors led to its steady growth and adoption.
July 2016 - Second BTC Halving
Bitcoin’s ecosystem grew with exchanges, wallets, and merchant adoption. With Ethereum’s launch in 2015 and the introduction of smart contracts, the blockchain technology innovation grew, along with decentralized applications, DeFi trends, and broader market adoption.
Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a store of value and medium of exchange strengthened and despite an initial 40% dip post-halving, prices rallied significantly the following year. BTC price increased to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017.
May 2020 - Third BTC Halving
This was a significant year during the COVID-19 pandemic for the global financial and crypto markets. The third halving during the pandemic caused widespread market uncertainty.
The block reward dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, further causing scarcity. Bitcoin rebounded strongly, driven by increasing institutional interest and macroeconomic factors like inflation concerns, dollar weakening, increased popularity of non-fungible token (NFTs) and altcoins, regulatory changes, and more. While it’s unclear how much of this market growth was directly due to Bitcoin halving cycle, it’s worth noting that eventually it preceded a bullish market sentiment.
By November 2021, the currency’s price crossed $67,000, due to its high demand.
April 2024 - Fourth BTC Halving
Bitcoin halving 2024 was a highly anticipated event where BTC miners’ block rewards reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The impact of this halving is still seen in the market. The Approval of Ethereum spot ETFs soon after this halving also renewed institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.
The fear and greed index indicates a generally optimistic sentiment around BTC demand. After this Bitcoin halving cycle, BTC was priced at an all-time high of around $111,861 on May 22, 2025.
Each halving strengthens Bitcoin’s deflationary economic model and strengthens its position as a scarce, decentralized digital currency.
When is the Next BTC Halving?
The next BTC halving event is expected to occur around March to May 2028. During this time, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. While the exact date may vary due to block times, the event will mark the fifth halving in Bitcoin’s history. This milestone will further reduce Bitcoin’s inflation rate, increase its scarcity, and potentially influence long-term price action and reward economics.
How is Bitcoin’s Price Affected After the Halving?
When supply drops and demand stays strong, prices often go up - that’s the basic idea behind bitcoin halving cycle. Since fewer new bitcoins are released into circulation, many people expect the reduced supply to push prices higher.
While halving can spark optimism, Bitcoin’s price is still influenced by a mix of things - like market trends, global news, and market sentiment (fear-and-greed index). So even though BTC halving events are often seen as positive for an asset’s value, they’re not a sure sign of a price surge.
But often a question arises - should you invest during the Bitcoin halving cycle?
Investing during a Bitcoin halving cycle can be strategic due to historical price movements in the months that follow. But, prices may not spike immediately and short-term volatility is quite common. You should view Bitcoin as a long-term asset and avoid chasing hype.
Will the Bitcoin Rally Spill Over to Altcoins?
2025 (post-halving) is expected to be a defining year for crypto. If historical trends repeat, Bitcoin could experience a strong post-halving rally, driving market optimism. Institutional adoption may increase, especially if regulatory clarity continues to improve.
During this time, investors tend to diversify into altcoins seeking higher returns. This “altcoin season” typically follows a Bitcoin surge. But, not all altcoins benefit equally - projects with strong fundamentals, utility, and community support are more likely to see gains.
Additionally, Ethereum upgrades and Layer 2 developments could boost DeFi and Web3 adoption and enhance blockchain trends. Meanwhile, the integration of AI in blockchain, real-world assets (RWAs), and tokenization may bring new use cases. However, macroeconomic conditions like interest rates and inflation will still heavily influence the crypto narrative.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin halving cycles are more than just a technical milestone. Apart from slashing miner rewards, it reflects the vision of a DeFi future. Each halving stirs up excitement, tests market performance, and reminds us why Bitcoin was built in the first place - to be scarce, valuable, and independent from traditional systems. While no one can accurately predict exactly what comes next, halvings are often seen as a new chapter in crypto - and for many, that’s part of the thrill.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
*How many more Bitcoin halving cycles are left? *
Only four of the 32 bitcoin halvings mentioned in the policy have been completed so far. There are still 28 halvings left, which will take roughly 116 years.At what block height does the BTC halving event occur?
Bitcoin halvings take place every 210,000 blocks. Block 840,000 was mined last year, followed by the fourth halving. The next BTC halving (in 2028) will happen after block 1,050,000 is mined, reducing the reward to 1.5625 BTC.What is time required to mine 1 BTC?
Usually, mining 1 BTC takes around 10 minutes or less, depending on the crypto mining setup and internet speed. But, it could also take a few days to several weeks, with challenges in computational power.